Rapid Mortality Surveillance Reports

2024

The Rapid Mortality Surveillance (RMS) Report has been providing empirical estimates of the mortality-based high-level indicators for monitoring health and the performance of the Department of Health since 2012. It provides information to track the health goal to increase life expectancy at birth and other selected outcomes outlined in the National Development Plan (NDP), the Medium Term Development Plan (MTDP) for 2024-2029 and the Department of Health’s Strategic Plan for 2020/21 – 2024/25.

Deaths registered on the National Population Register (NPR) by the Department of Home Affairs are the main data source for the most recent estimates. These are adjusted to account for under-registration. Estimates that require cause-specific information from Stats SA, such as the maternal mortality rate (MMR) and non-communicable disease (NCD) premature mortality rates, are less up to date (up to 2022, being the most recent year for which vital registration data have been released). The Neonatal Mortality Rate (NMR) is based on District Health Information System (DHIS) data up to 2024. Efforts to improve the completeness of death registration are still required and the delay in the release of cause-of-death statistics is a particular concern in the context of the limited improvements following the increase in deaths in 2021.

The report shows that in 2024, the average life expectancy in South Africa was 66.4 years. After having increased from 53.7 years in 2005 to 65.3 in 2019, due mainly to a decline in the mortality of both children and young adults, it fell to 61.6 years in 2021 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The mortality shock caused by COVID-19 resulted in a drop in the average life expectancy of 3.41 years between 2019 and 2021, with a greater decline occurring in 2021 than in 2020. This decline is a higher than has been measured in more developed countries, but lower than some countries in South America (Aburto et al, 2021, Heuveline, 2022, Cao et al, 2023). Furthermore, in contrast to the experience in many of these countries, the impact on life expectancy between 2019 and 2021 was greater for females (drop of 3.7 years) than for males (decrease of 3.1 years). The more muted impact of COVID-19 in 2020 was mainly due to the impact of the severe lockdown (restricting social interaction and travel) and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on non-COVID mortality. In the case of males, the marked reduction in the number of deaths from unnatural causes during periods of stringent lockdowns including alcohol restrictions contributed to the lower decline in their life expectancy during 2020. Since 2021, life expectancy has increased by 4.8 years by 2024 with a greater increase for females (5.2 years) than for males (4.4 years).

View the complete Rapid Mortality Surveillance Report 2024

View the RMS 2024 Key Findings Report