Executive Summary

This report presents the results of an in-depth epidemiological study conducted across the Highveld Priority Area (HPA), the Vaal Triangle Priority Area (VTPA), and the Waterberg-Bojanala Priority Area (WBPA) in South Africa, focusing on the association between ambient air pollution and mortality. The analysis leverages advanced time-series and case-crossover modelling, particularly the Distributed Lag Conditional Case-Crossover (DL-CCO) model, across weekly aggregated mortality data. By integrating data from 2005 to 2020, stratified by district, pollutant, and season, this study aims to provide robust, policy-relevant insights into the public health impacts of pollutants such as PM₁₀ and SO₂. 

The three priority areas reflect regions of high industrial activity and emissions. The HPA includes Sedibeng and Gert Sibande, the VTPA comprises Nkangala and Fezile Dabi, and the WBPA includes Waterberg and Bojanala. These areas have been designated based on elevated pollutant concentrations and significant population exposure. The dataset includes weekly mortality counts, meteorological data, and air pollution concentrations, covering a broad range of temporal and spatial variation. This robust structure allows for the analysis of lagged effects of pollution exposure and the differentiation of risk patterns across seasons.

View the Full Report: The Impact of Air Pollution on Human Health in the Three Air Pollution Priority Areas in South Africa