Report on Weekly Deaths in South Africa

Last report for 2022 – 14 December 2022
The final weekly death report for 2022 will be released on Wednesday 14 December. In the absence of unexpected changes in the numbers of excess deaths, it is no longer essential to report numbers weekly. The SAMRC team will continue to track the numbers of deaths on a weekly basis for surveillance and monitoring purposes and will release reports (of the weekly numbers of deaths up to the end of the previous month).

Refining the estimate of excess deaths
Apart from the current low levels of weekly excess deaths, there is growing uncertainty about the estimate of the counterfactual (predicted) numbers of deaths the further from the start of the pandemic that one projects. The SAMRC team is currently investigating some refinements to both the method used to correct deaths from the NPR for under-reporting and the method used to predict the numbers of deaths from the historical data. Improving these estimates is likely to lead to (hopefully) small changes in the aggregate numbers of excess deaths by age group and province, but the overall magnitude should not change much. A report describing the (revised) estimates of excess deaths experienced during 2020-2022 will be released in February 2023.   

In the context of the emerging COVID-19 pandemic, it has become essential to track the weekly number of deaths that occur. Deaths recorded on the National Population Register are provided to the SAMRC on a weekly basis. These have been scaled up to estimate the actual number of deaths by accounting for the people who are not on the population register and the under-registration of deaths. The methodology for the adjustment and predicted values have been changed to enable monitoring in 2021 and the reporting week has been changed to an ‘epi-week’ that runs from Sunday to Saturday. The estimated numbers are compared with the number that would be expected based on the historical data from 2014-2019 (see Methodological Note for more details). The number of deaths of persons 1-year and older are reported because birth registration was put on hold during lockdown stage 5 affecting the number of infant deaths recorded on this system. The start date of each week is represented on the graph. 

View the latest report

Estimated number of excess natural deaths and death rates by province and metro, South Africa 2020/2021 (all ages)

One approach to aid understanding of the emerging COVID-19 mortality is to compare the estimated weekly excess deaths with the number of COVID-19 deaths reported by the Minister of Health as shown in the figure below. This comparison is hampered to some degree by the fact that the excess deaths are classified by week in which the death occurred; the reported COVID-19 deaths are classified by date the numbers are reported to the Department.

Caution: The National Department of Health ceased releasing daily data on cases and deaths on 29 July 2022 and the numbers have been updated on an ad-hoc basis thereafter. As a consequence, the data on officially-reported deaths are deficient; and no longer represent even the officially-reported deaths classified by date of reporting.

Provinces
 

The P-Score is another measure frequently used to describe excess mortality on a weekly basis. It is the percentage change in the number of deaths from the expected number for that week. Negative values below 0% reflect a deficit in deaths while positive values reflect an increase. This graph shows the percentage change between the estimated number of deaths from natural causes and the predicted number based on the historical data.

 

Archives - previous reports - 2022
2021
2020
 
 
Date: 
Wednesday, December 14, 2022 - 08:30