Report on Weekly Deaths in South Africa

In the context of the emerging COVID-19 pandemic, it has become essential to track the weekly number of deaths that occur. Deaths recorded on the National Population Register are provided to the SAMRC on a weekly basis. These have been scaled up to estimate the actual number of deaths by accounting for the people who are not on the population register and the under-registration of deaths. The estimated numbers are compared with the number that would be expected based on the historical data from 2018 and 2019. The number of deaths of persons 1-year and older are reported because birth registration was put on hold during lockdown stage 5 affecting the number of infant deaths recorded on this system. The start date of each week is represented on the graph.    


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Estimated number of excess natural deaths of persons 1+ years by province and metro, South Africa 2020

The P-Score is another measure frequently used to describe excess mortality on a weekly basis. It is the percentage change in the number of deaths from the expected number for that week. Negative values below 0% reflect a deficit in deaths while positive values reflect and increase. This graph shows the percentage change between the estimated number of deaths from natural causes and the predicted number based on the historical data.



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Wednesday, August 5, 2020 - 18:15